This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, therefore I think that it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The main GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K to 1st place. That’s the best you to chase in my view. I will have a few LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I will win them all, but I will not have lots of LUs in total this week. Other than that, most of my play this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best play on the card this weekend and there are 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I believe this is a struggle the UFC is wanting him to win in his home nation. I think in tournaments, Yadong will be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced over him, with much smaller odds of winning ITD. I believe that you may make a situation to fade him due to his ownership in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about ownership. I believe that this is a good place to lock at a triumph and possibly ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More often than not 4 wins gets the work done in money games.
GPP drama of the week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card at -400. There is also value on Hu Yaozong with him being $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even. Usually when there is worth like that on an underdog it makes them one of the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of those men are UFC level fighters, but I am a little more impressed with what I have seen from Coulter compared to this inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter in GPP lineups at a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend in a fight that should not move all 3-rounds. If both of these guys get an early finish they will probably be about the winning lineup. I am guessing Coulter are the reduced owned man of both and that is what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really are not many underdogs I like to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved producing lineups this week since I hate plugging in 2 underdogs when I think almost every favorite will get a win. I believe the best underdog to aim this week is Francis Ngannou since he does have a clear path to victory and he has won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the ability in order to KO anyone on Earth. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he likely ends upon the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. In the first battle between both of these men Blaydes was able to receive 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up pretty fast each time. If he is in a position to end up like that again here, then I don’t see any way Blaydes will have the aerobic to attempt to wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is your scarier guy on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to attack for long amounts of time. I think Ngannou is live for an upset here but on a card, I really don’t like many underdogs I think he’s the best you to aim with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t enjoy targeting any of these women in the $9k selection. I believe they need to all get wins, but I do not find any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she would want at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and I think she has to get a conclusion to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA record and only 1 of those wins did not go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a tournament. In addition, I believe Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning than Mueller does so that is why I chose her over both as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a lot of lineups this week however when I was making 20 lineups then Mueller will be on zero of these.
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